The Path – Big Lie to Insurrection
The path to the January 6 insurrection was long and very involved. The big lie of election fraud paved the way for a scheme to overturn the peaceful transfer of power.
Quick Summary:
- Origin of the Big Lie -Trump has used election fraud claims (System is Rigged) since 2016. The 2020 Presidential election has been thoroughly investigated and no evidence has ever been discovered that would support his ongoing claims of widespread voter fraud.
- 2020 Election Results – Biden wins by over 7 million votes
- Real Election Fraud – After the 2020 election, votes were counted, Trump and a group of his supporters concocted a scheme to overrule the electoral count and restore him to power. It involved falsifying select state elector documents, pressuring state officials to certify them, and attempting to throw the vote certification to the states where Republicans held a majority.
- January 6 Insurrection – When VP Pence refused to cooperate they encouraged Trump’s supporters to come to Washington DC for a rally on January 6. After the speeches, many protesters stormed the capitol disrupting the peaceful transfer of power. Many members of Law enforcement were injured.
- Aftermath – Many convictions.
- More Resources-
Here is a chronology of the path to the insurrection, based on court documents, reporting, and the Jack Smith Special Council report.
1) Origin of the BIG LIE
Trump’s frequent predictions and claims of election fraud can be traced back to his primary battle with Ted Cruz in 2016.
Later, after winning the 2018 election against Hillary Clinton, he also claimed that voter fraud caused him to lose the popular vote.
On May 11, 2017, after becoming President, Trump initiated the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity, headed by his VP, Mike Pence. It was largely staffed by voter fraud supporters, but It quietly dissolved on January 3, 2018, after it was unable to confirm any significant voter fraud in the 2016 election.
The Big Lie in 2020
In 2020, during a speech in Wisconsin, as the Democratic convention was underway, Trump foreshadowed his “Big Lie” by predicting widespread election fraud in the upcoming election.
Despite having no evidence to back it up, This Big Lie was adopted by many in his party. By 2022, support for the Big Lie was widely adopted by Republicans and GOP candidates.
The constant repetition of election fraud claims significantly impacted the public, particularly among the GOPO and other Trump supporters.
Voter Fraud Lies Debunked
Trump Lies About Noncitizens Voting After Losing Popular Vote
Weeks after being elected in 2016, the president tweeted: “In addition to winning the electoral college in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally.”
In the aftermath of the 2016 election, the Brennan Center researched and rebutted claims of widespread noncitizen voting. The ensuing report found only about 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting that were referred for further investigation or prosecution out of 23.5 million votes tabulated in the 42 jurisdictions studied, which were selected because of their high rates of noncitizen residents.
Trump Alleges Widespread Voter Impersonation After 2018 Midterms
In November 2018, the president claimed: “The Republicans don’t win and that’s because of potentially illegal votes. When people get in line that have absolutely no right to vote and they go around in circles. Sometimes they go to their car, put on a different hat, put on a different shirt, come in and vote again.”
The Brennan Center, alongside academics and journalists, has investigated claims of voter–impersonation fraud (which happens when an ineligible voter pretends to be an eligible voter at the polls) and found that it almost never happens. A Brennan Center report determined that Americans are more likely to be struck by lightning than to commit voter-impersonation fraud.
Conservative Organization Compiles Misleading Database
In 2017, members of President Trump’s doomed voter fraud commission relied on a Heritage Foundation database that claimed to contain evidence of approximately 1,100 instances of voter fraud.
The Brennan Center analyzed this database and found that the claims were “grossly exaggerated” and “devoid of context.” There were only 10 cases involving in-person voter-impersonation fraud and only 41 involving noncitizen voting. Put in context, the think tank inadvertently undermined claims of widespread voter fraud. In the period covered by the database, which stretched back to the Truman era, more than 3 billion votes were cast in federal elections alone, along with many more in state and local elections. Thus, the cases identified in the database made up an infinitesimally small portion of the overall number of votes cast.
Source: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/10-voter-fraud-lies-debunked
The BIG LIE would become the very foundation of Trump’s election interference efforts and ultimately the January 6 insurrection. On a state basis, many GOP legislators have adopted the Big Lie to question election results and influence future elections.
2) 2020 election results
3) Real Election Fraud
Quoting the Special Counsel Report
When it became clear that Mr. Trump had lost the election and that lawful means of challenging the election results had failed, he reso1ied to a series of criminal efforts to retain power. This included attempts to induce state officials to ignore true vote counts; to manufacture fraudulent slates of presidential electors in seven states that he had lost; to force Justice Department officials and his own Vice President, Michael R. Pence, to act in contravention of their oaths and to instead advance Mr. Trump’s personal interests; and, on January 6, 2021, to direct an angry mob to the United States Capitol to obstruct the congressional certification of the presidential election and then leverage rioters’ violence to further delay it.
John Eastman presented to Donald Trump and his supporters, a scheme by which he should challenge the 2020 election results and retain power.
He suggested on behalf of Trump that
- The results of the 2020 Presidential election be challenged in seven states where Trump lost.
- He announces that because of the ongoing disputes in the 7 States, there are no electors that can be deemed validly appointed in those States.
- That VP Pence presiding over the Senate reject the official electors from those states where Trump lost
- Then a “majority of the electors appointed” would therefore be 228. There are at this point 232 votes for Trump, 222 votes for Biden. Pence then gavels President Trump as re-elected.
If that ploy failed an alternative is :
- Pursuant to the 12th Amendment, no candidate has achieved the necessary majority.
- That sends the matter to the House, where the “the votes shall be taken by states, the
representation from each state having one vote . . . . - ” Republicans currently control 26 of the state delegations, the bare majority needed to win that vote. President Trump is re-elected there as well.
As part of this effort, Trump and his enablers pressured state officials to participate in this plan by creating and engaging false electors in several states.
It was reported that Kenneth Chesebro had a major role in the fake elector plan. In short, the Trump team would gin up a list of “Alternative electors” to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the real state electors in seven key states where Trump lost. Serval states balked at this attempt while others were misled into thinking they were only contingency electors.
It should be noted that several participants in the fake electors scheme have pleaded guilty.
Trump held several meeting with Mike Pence to entourage him to go along with his plan. Pence dug in reminding Trump that the law did not permit him to do so.
“From very early on, the very first time the president raised the issue with me, that he was being told that I had the right to overturn the election to reject or return votes, I told him, I knew I had no such authority,”
“I truly do believe that, you know, no one who ever puts himself over the Constitution should ever be President of the United States,” – Mike Pence on Face the Nation
December 18, 2020 meeting – Unhinged
A meeting of election conspiracy supporters in the Whitehouse provided Trump with the support he needed to call followers to the January 6 protests.
WASHINGTON — An Oval Office meeting over Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election became so heated that staff could hear shouting from outside the room and participants nearly came to blows, the Jan. 6 committee revealed during Tuesday’s hearing.
On one side of the fight White House lawyers argued there was no evidence of widespread election fraud and no ground to challenge the results. On the other was a colorful cast of outside Trump advisers exploring ways to keep the 45th president in power — by any means necessary.
The argument devolved into a screaming match, both sides testified. At some point, alcohol began “flowing” in the outer Oval Office, White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson testified. “The west wing is UNHINGED,” she texted someone.
A short while later, at 1:42 a.m., Dec. 19, 2020, Trump — frustrated by the options presented to him — tweeted what Jan. 6 panel members say was a “call to arms” to his millions of loyalists around the country:
Despite being told that his efforts to overturn the election were illegal Trump and his allies promoted a January 6 protest in Washington – the “Save America Rally”
4) January 6 Insurrection
After Trump and his supporters fired up the crowd, they were urged to march on the Capitol.
The result is now commonly referred to as the January 6 insurrection, His supporters carrying pro-Trump flags stormed the Capitol building and disrupted the 2020 presidential vote certification.
5) Aftermath:
Injured: According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, “Approximately 140 police officers were assaulted on Jan. 6 at the Capitol, including about 80 from the U.S. Capitol Police and about 60 from the Metropolitan Police Department.”
Arrests made: More than 1,265 defendants have been charged in nearly all 50 states and the District of Columbia. (This includes those charged in both District and Superior Court).
Pleas: Approximately 718 individuals have pleaded guilty to a variety of federal charges, many of whom faced or will face incarceration at sentencing.
Trials: 139 individuals have been found guilty at contested trials
Sentencings: Approximately 749 federal defendants have had their cases adjudicated and received sentences for their criminal activity on Jan. 6. Approximately 467 have been sentenced to periods of incarceration.
Trump pardoned or commuted the prison sentences of all of the 1,500-plus people charged with crimes in the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot, including people convicted of seditious conspiracy and assaulting police officers. Key members of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers are included.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-dc/36-months-jan-6-attack-capitol-0
Second Impeachment:
Donald Trump: Donald Trump was impeached a second time for his involvement in the insurrection. A Republican-dominated Senate failed to convict him which required a 2/3 affirmative vote.
He raised over 100 million dollars from supporters to pay his legal bills. He was reelected President in the 2024 elections and has promised to pardon many of those arrested and convicted for their participation the insurrection.
Impeachment Documents: https://libguides.union.edu/c.php?g=1115193&p=8189008
January 6 Key Players
Rudy Giuliani- Disbarred, bankrupt. Lost libel suite ($148 Million in damages), Indicted in Georgia case.
John Eastman- indicted in Georgia as alleged co-conspirators, Pled not guilty. A judge in California ruled that Eastman should be disbarred for his involvement in Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results.
Sidney Powell –pled guilty in Georgia to six counts of conspiracy to commit intentional interference with the performance of election duties.
Mark Meadows – indicted in Georgia as an alleged co-conspirator. Pled not guilty. Reportedly granted immunity to testify under oath
Kenneth Chesebro – received 5 years suspended sentence $5,000 restitution 100 hours of community service Suspended from legal practice
Steve Bannon – charged with contempt of Congress for refusing to comply with a subpoena
Donald Trump – Re-elected as President
The Supreme Court:
The Supreme Court has granted the President immunity from official acts.
Held: Under our constitutional structure of separated powers, the nature of Presidential power entitles a former President to absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for actions within his conclusive and preclusive constitutional authority. And he is entitled to at least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts. There is no immunity for unofficial acts.
Ruling: https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf
5) MORE RESOURCES:
Special Council Superseding Indictment: https://www.justice.gov/storage/US-v-Trump-Nauta-De-Oliveira-23-80101.pdf
January 6th Committee Report: https://www.govinfo.gov/collection/january-6th-committee-final-report?path=/GPO/January%206th%20Committee%20Final%20Report%20and%20Supporting%20Materials%20Collection
Trump Impeachment: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CDOC-116hdoc95/pdf/CDOC-116hdoc95-vol2-pt2.pdf
https://libguides.union.edu/c.php?g=1115193&p=8189008
PBS/FrontLine: Democracy on Trial https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/democracy-on-trial/transcript/
PBS/FrontLine: Plot to Overturn the Election https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/plot-to-overturn-the-election/transcript/
Trump’s Jan 6 speech: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-J6-REPORT/pdf/GPO-J6-REPORT-2-7.pdf
Late on a Friday night about six weeks after Donald Trump lost his reelection, a fistfight nearly broke out in the White House between the president’s fired national security adviser and a top White House aide.
Even for a White House known for its unconventional chaos, the Dec. 18, 2020, meeting was an extraordinary moment, demonstrating how Trump invited fringe players advocating radical action into his inner sanctum, as he searched for a way to remain in office despite losing an election.
“President Trump got to watch up close for several hours as his White House counsel and other White House lawyers destroyed the baseless factual claims and ridiculous legal arguments being offered by … Mike Flynn and others,”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/12/trump-white-house-meeting-jan-6/
According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, “Approximately 140 police officers were assaulted on Jan. 6 at the Capitol, including about 80 from the U.S. Capitol Police and about 60 from the Metropolitan Police Department.”
The Dec. 18, 2020, meeting was an extraordinary moment, demonstrating how Trump invited fringe players advocating radical action into his inner sanctum, as he searched for a way to remain in office despite losing an election.
Steve Bannon in December 2020, reportedly urged Trump to focus on the January 6 certification of the presidential election results. In a podcast on January 5, Bannon predicted, “All hell is going to break loose tomorrow.” https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/12/politics/trump-january-6-televised-hearings/index.html
After being refuted by Pence Trump called on his supporters to go to Washington on January 6 to protest at the “Save America Rally”.
The fake elector plan coupled with the Fake election fraud became the focus of a rally in the Capitol on January 6, the day when Congress met to certify the vote. Trump actively promoted this rally and encouraged his supporters to travel to Washington DC to protest.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/trump-electors-memo-november/6dfa71755c7d0879/full.pdf
Fake electors https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/22/trump-fake-elector-scheme-case-tracker
This became the blueprint for Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 Presidential election.
SIDE NOTE: Eastman was subsequently disbarred from practicing law in California.
By seeding false election fraud claims and confusion Trump energized his followers and united his party to action.