Methodology and Sources
Overview > Methodology and Sources
Methodology and Sources
This analysis translates what voters said on November 3, 2026 into a governing and campaign agenda for 2027 and 2028. It is written for elected officials, senior staff and campaign leaders.
What we drew on
- Election-day surveys of actual voters. The AP Voter Poll, conducted by SSRS for AP and a group of networks with roughly 80,000 to 100,000 respondents in all 50 states, plus the NBC News Exit Poll and the Fox News Voter Poll.
- Pre-election issue surveys. Gallup (October 1 to 19, 1,057 registered voters), Pew Research Center (September 28 to October 4) and AP-NORC (October).
- Reported results and campaign themes from AP, CBS News and other outlets as of November 5, 2026.
Two cautions
- Several House and Senate races are still being counted, so seat totals are projections.
- Early survey figures are often revised as final weights are applied. The direction of findings is more reliable than any single percentage.
Our approach
Each program is tied to a measured voter concern, sized for what can pass under a president of the opposing party, and paired with a message and a delivery timeline. Where reasonable people disagree, we set out design options rather than prescribe one ideology.
Sources
- AP Voter Poll: The economy and the state of democracy are voters’ top issues (AP via PBS News, November 3, 2026)
- How Trump and Republicans lost the 2026 midterm elections, according to AP Voter Poll (AP via PBS News, November 4, 2026)
- AP Voter Poll: How key demographic groups voted in the 2026 midterms (AP via PBS News, November 3, 2026)
- The Issues Voters Say Matter Most This Midterm (Gallup, October 29, 2026)
- Economy Ranks as Top Issue in Midterms for All Voters (Pew Research Center, October 8, 2026)
- Many voters saw midterm election as a rebuke of Trump, NBC News Exit Poll shows (NBC News, November 4, 2026)
- See CBS News exit poll results for the 2026 midterm elections (CBS News)
- Ahead of the midterms, most voters cite the economy and cost of living as top issues (AP-NORC, October 2026)
- 2026 midterm election updates (CBS News, seat projections)
- 2026 midterm election results: Who won the key House and Senate races? (Northeastern Global News, November 5, 2026)
- Inflation, tariffs and a voter revolt: The midterm verdict on Trump’s economy (AP report, November 5, 2026)
- Voters Put Affordability First (Forbes, November 4, 2026)
- AP Voter Poll 2026: how voters shifted since 2024 (secondary analysis of AP data)
- Fox News Voter Poll: 2026 midterm elections usher in a blue wave (Fox News, November 4, 2026)
- Following Callais: Views on Supreme Court Remain Mixed But Reforms Are Popular (Navigator Research, May 21, 2026)
- Majorities of Americans say Donald Trump gives out too many pardons and want to limit pardon power (Economist/YouGov, December 2025)
What Voters Want 2026. Working analysis, November 2026. Figures from election-day and pre-election surveys; projections may change as counting finishes.